Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
